[LUAU] Am I going to TPOSSCON - If not why?

[Jon Reynolds]

Jim Thompson wrote:
> Stan Baptista wrote:
> 
>>> this means they reflexively shy away from
>>> associating it with doing serious business.
>>>   
>>
>> This definitely seems to be the case in Hawaii but
>> there's probably a bit more to it.  Vegas has a major
>> marketing campaign going on these days about "what
>> happens in Vegas stays in Vegas".  Exactly which part
>> of that is about "serious" business?  And yet major
>> business conventions, tech and otherwise, are held in
>> Vegas on a regular basis year after year (Comdex
>> anyone?).
>>  
>>
> Comdex, CES and to some extent NAB are all in Vegas because noplace else 
> could 'hold' them.
> 
> Things have changed since 9/11 and the dot-com crash, but as of Y2K, the 
> above was an absolutely true statement, and had been for several years.
> 
> Also, the hotels in Vegas have a "business model" that doesn't require 
> the "rake" from just room rate + F&B.
> 
>> Same is true about the theme parks in Orlando (Disney,
>> Epcot, Universal...).  Lot's of fun in the sun there
>> but it really doesn't stop "serious business" in the
>> form of conventions from ocurring regularly.
>>
>> The dirty little secret about conventions is that
>> there is _always_ a junket aspect to them and it
>> doesn't matter whether you're in Minnesota in January
>> or the Bahamas (or Hawaii).
>>  
>>
> This is also true, but there is a serious "perception" that Hawaii is 
> all about going to the beach.
> I still have people assume that, because I've moved to Hawaii,  I must 
> have gotten rich at one of the
> dot-bombs Jamie or I worked for, bought beachfront property and dropped 
> out of the rat race.
> 
> I wish.
> 
>> It's serious business but not business as usual or
>> ordinary, just different (it's about networking and
>> taking a break from the rat race that you usually deal
>> with in Oshkosh or wherever, and refreshing yourself
>> with new ideas).
>>
>> In the case of Hawaii, I wonder if it's also about
>> cost and perception as much as anything else (i.e.,
>> it's expensive to fly those extra 3K miles from the
>> left coast and Hawaii simply isn't regared as a
>> significant tech area).
>>  
>>
> The two coasts have large 'tech' populations, and its cheap to fly them 
> from Seattle to San Jose or Boston to Orlando.
> 
> The tech population in Hawaii is in the error margin.   (Many of us 
> would like to, or think its importat to change this.)
> 
> As a result you have to import *everything* to hold a big convention here.
> 
> I still think that Hawaii's 'tourist' industry is in big trouble (and 
> Hawaii with it) if energy costs continue to climb, making travel more 
> expensive (on top of everything "at home" more expesive, both for the 
> toursts who won't be coming here (perhaps "as often") as well as 
> Hawaii's residents (since we import nearly 100% of what we "consume' 
> here in Hawaii.)
> 
> Without the tourists, the big timeshare projects (such as Ko'olina) will 
> shut down.   The real estate market is already getting soft, while the 
> Fed is expected to raise the prime rate for the 14th time tomorrow, 
> likely further impacting the real estate market.
> 
> The segment of our economy  that is based on land development and the 
> housing bubbles may soon be finished. We are going to have to make other 
> arrangements for running our state and employing all the people who are 
> currently enjoying the 'trickle down' of all the housing turns and 
> construction.
> 
> What happens to Hawaii if (I should say 'when', but I'm in a gentle 
> mood) gas goes to $5/gallon, with conmesurate cost increases in our food 
> (guess what, its almost all imported from 3,000 miles away?), and 
> electricity?   I'll stay well away from any predictions of "collapse" 
> here, but in simple terms, the dollars that are spent on higher gas 
> prices, higher electricity bills and higher totals in the check-out line 
> at Safeway and Foodland will simply be unavailable for other things.
> 
> If tourism falls off by half (because the prices will go up on the 
> mainland and in Japan as well), then the tax base will contract.   There 
> will be layoffs as marginal resturants and other portions of the tourism 
> industry closer to the 'edge' close, and other, healthier tourism-based 
> businesses shed workers who are unnecessary because of the reduced load 
> of tourism, or simply to make ends meet when there is less gross income 
> for those buinesses.
> 
> As the tax base contracts, there will be fewer dollars available for C&C 
> and the state to spend on things like roads and education.   Hawaii is 
> already in fairly poor shape on both of these fronts (I won't mention 
> the water or sewage systems other than in-passing.)
> 
> So how do we replace those dollars?   Hawaii is "geographicly 
> undesirable" for a manufacturing business.   We don't have the cheap 
> labor market that India, Taiwan or
> 
> I saw a posting for an embedded linux / software engineer in Portland, 
> OR today.   They were offering $12/hr for 20 hours/week.  It was 
> contact, so no 'bennies', and they were promising a raise to $15/hr when 
> they get funding (unlikely in my view). 
> So if putting gas in your car is twice as expensive, and keeping the 
> lights on is twice as expensive, and your food costs 20% - 30% more than 
> it does today (lets say its twice as expensive to transport, and that 
> currently we pay about a 20% 'premium' over west coast food prices due 
> to the shipping, so doubling the energy costs would be at least another 
> 20%, never mind the higher energy bills endured by Foodland.)
> 
> What does this mean for you, the gentle reader of this LUAU list?
> 
> It means that teachers are going to have a harder time surviving.  Some 
> will flee our state, not that things will be much better elsewhere.   
> The union(s) will demand COLA-based raises, putting further pressure on 
> the DOE and businesses (such, as, incidentally, airlines and hotels).   
> The current round of computer upgrades are likely the last for a long, 
> long time.  (And the DOE may want to power them down when they're not 
> in-use, something that makes an XP box more cranky than its 
> linux-terminal based alternative, if only that its more difficult to 
> adminster a box that isn't powered up.)
> 
> But, all that aside, there will be (far) fewer dollars to spend on IT.   
> Existing infrastructure will be recycled and renewed.  "Doing more with 
> less" will be the new order of the day.   Companies such as Dell and HP 
> are going to have an even more difficult time not only operating on U.S. 
> soil, but their margins will continue to become thinner.  
> (Co-incidentally Dell just opened its *third* India-base call center and 
> is looking for land on which to build a factory.)  Companies that mainly 
> target the home market, such as Gateway, will likely go out of business.
> 
> Add to all that the simple fact that Senator Akaka was born in 1924, and 
> has been in the Senate since 1990, while Senator Inouye, who was also 
> born in 1924, has been in the Senate since 1963.   Both men will be 82 
> years old in September, 2006.  House Representative Neil Abercrombie 
> turns 68 this year as well.  How much longer do you think they'll 
> continue to provide the seniority in Congress that profits Hawaii in so 
> many ways? 
> Ed Case is relatively young at a mere 54 in September, but Represenative 
> Case has only been in the House since the end of 2002.  Thats right, all 
> that federal money will also start to decrease soon.
> 
> I think its not completly bleak.   It will be easier to get along with 
> with less electricity here.   Small changes (such as turning off 
> parasitic loads (nearly any electronic device you own that is "instant 
> on"), and lights when they aren't in-use can have a big impact.   
> Converting your water heater to solar can save about 20%.   I predict a 
> boom in solar installations in the next 2-3 years.  You can read that as 
> a business opportunity if you like.
> 
> VoIP will increase, and thats a place where many folks on the list can 
> make a living.  Matt isn't the only guy who will profit, as I'm sure 
> he'll agree.  If DUNDi succeeds, then you're not going to want (or need) 
> a VoIP provider for most of your calls.   That probably scares Matt, but 
> there are opportunities exposed by understanding the potential for 
> something like DUNDi or GNUP.  (Yes Matt, even if it needs to be 'fixed' 
> first.  The nice thing about having a completely open standard and a 
> GPLed implementation is that both can be changed by motivated people who 
> understand the problems and how to fix them.)
> 
> But by and large, "more with less" is where FOSS shines.   Windows (re-) 
> licensing will become very expensive, and a lot of applications will 
> either be transfered to run on WINE (or similar) or run in a Xen or 
> VMware container while being quickly re-written for linux or freebsd on 
> re-purposed hardware.   Fewer sysadmins likely translates to more 
> linux-based "terminals".   More OpenLDAP, less "Active Directory".  
> Lotus Notes and Exchange will both die for something that is far easier 
> to manage and costs exactly $0.00 to purchase or license.
> 
> Does any of that sound familiar?
> 
> So friends, if you like to live here, and you like to eat, you might 
> just want to get involved, if only out of self-interest.   We can learn 
> together how to do these things sllightly before they become 
> increasingly important to the general population.
> 
> Or, we can continue this fun little flame war with all the back-channel 
> ("Bcc:") email (more than four of you at last count), claim credit for 
> ideas (falsely or not), position for "leadership", quit the list, quit 
> the board, label people "arrogant" or "stupid" (or worse) and in general 
> act like a group of monkeys trying to impregnate a football.
> 
> Or, I could be wrong about any or all of the above.
> 
> jim
> 
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> 
> 
Thanks Jim, that was a fascinating read.

Jon