[LUAU] Am I going to TPOSSCON - If not why?

[Jim Thompson]

Stan Baptista wrote:

>>this means they reflexively shy away from
>>associating it with doing serious business.
>>    
>>
>
>This definitely seems to be the case in Hawaii but
>there's probably a bit more to it.  Vegas has a major
>marketing campaign going on these days about "what
>happens in Vegas stays in Vegas".  Exactly which part
>of that is about "serious" business?  And yet major
>business conventions, tech and otherwise, are held in
>Vegas on a regular basis year after year (Comdex
>anyone?).
>  
>
Comdex, CES and to some extent NAB are all in Vegas because noplace else 
could 'hold' them.

Things have changed since 9/11 and the dot-com crash, but as of Y2K, the 
above was an absolutely true statement, and had been for several years.

Also, the hotels in Vegas have a "business model" that doesn't require 
the "rake" from just room rate + F&B.

>Same is true about the theme parks in Orlando (Disney,
>Epcot, Universal...).  Lot's of fun in the sun there
>but it really doesn't stop "serious business" in the
>form of conventions from ocurring regularly.
>
>The dirty little secret about conventions is that
>there is _always_ a junket aspect to them and it
>doesn't matter whether you're in Minnesota in January
>or the Bahamas (or Hawaii).
>  
>
This is also true, but there is a serious "perception" that Hawaii is 
all about going to the beach.
I still have people assume that, because I've moved to Hawaii,  I must 
have gotten rich at one of the
dot-bombs Jamie or I worked for, bought beachfront property and dropped 
out of the rat race.

I wish.

>It's serious business but not business as usual or
>ordinary, just different (it's about networking and
>taking a break from the rat race that you usually deal
>with in Oshkosh or wherever, and refreshing yourself
>with new ideas).
>
>In the case of Hawaii, I wonder if it's also about
>cost and perception as much as anything else (i.e.,
>it's expensive to fly those extra 3K miles from the
>left coast and Hawaii simply isn't regared as a
>significant tech area).
>  
>
The two coasts have large 'tech' populations, and its cheap to fly them 
from Seattle to San Jose or Boston to Orlando.

The tech population in Hawaii is in the error margin.   (Many of us 
would like to, or think its importat to change this.)

As a result you have to import *everything* to hold a big convention here.

I still think that Hawaii's 'tourist' industry is in big trouble (and 
Hawaii with it) if energy costs continue to climb, making travel more 
expensive (on top of everything "at home" more expesive, both for the 
toursts who won't be coming here (perhaps "as often") as well as 
Hawaii's residents (since we import nearly 100% of what we "consume' 
here in Hawaii.)

Without the tourists, the big timeshare projects (such as Ko'olina) will 
shut down.   The real estate market is already getting soft, while the 
Fed is expected to raise the prime rate for the 14th time tomorrow, 
likely further impacting the real estate market.

The segment of our economy  that is based on land development and the 
housing bubbles may soon be finished. We are going to have to make other 
arrangements for running our state and employing all the people who are 
currently enjoying the 'trickle down' of all the housing turns and 
construction.

What happens to Hawaii if (I should say 'when', but I'm in a gentle 
mood) gas goes to $5/gallon, with conmesurate cost increases in our food 
(guess what, its almost all imported from 3,000 miles away?), and 
electricity?   I'll stay well away from any predictions of "collapse" 
here, but in simple terms, the dollars that are spent on higher gas 
prices, higher electricity bills and higher totals in the check-out line 
at Safeway and Foodland will simply be unavailable for other things.

If tourism falls off by half (because the prices will go up on the 
mainland and in Japan as well), then the tax base will contract.   There 
will be layoffs as marginal resturants and other portions of the tourism 
industry closer to the 'edge' close, and other, healthier tourism-based 
businesses shed workers who are unnecessary because of the reduced load 
of tourism, or simply to make ends meet when there is less gross income 
for those buinesses.

As the tax base contracts, there will be fewer dollars available for C&C 
and the state to spend on things like roads and education.   Hawaii is 
already in fairly poor shape on both of these fronts (I won't mention 
the water or sewage systems other than in-passing.)

So how do we replace those dollars?   Hawaii is "geographicly 
undesirable" for a manufacturing business.   We don't have the cheap 
labor market that India, Taiwan or

I saw a posting for an embedded linux / software engineer in Portland, 
OR today.   They were offering $12/hr for 20 hours/week.  It was 
contact, so no 'bennies', and they were promising a raise to $15/hr when 
they get funding (unlikely in my view).  

So if putting gas in your car is twice as expensive, and keeping the 
lights on is twice as expensive, and your food costs 20% - 30% more than 
it does today (lets say its twice as expensive to transport, and that 
currently we pay about a 20% 'premium' over west coast food prices due 
to the shipping, so doubling the energy costs would be at least another 
20%, never mind the higher energy bills endured by Foodland.)

What does this mean for you, the gentle reader of this LUAU list?

It means that teachers are going to have a harder time surviving.  Some 
will flee our state, not that things will be much better elsewhere.   
The union(s) will demand COLA-based raises, putting further pressure on 
the DOE and businesses (such, as, incidentally, airlines and hotels).   
The current round of computer upgrades are likely the last for a long, 
long time.  (And the DOE may want to power them down when they're not 
in-use, something that makes an XP box more cranky than its 
linux-terminal based alternative, if only that its more difficult to 
adminster a box that isn't powered up.)

But, all that aside, there will be (far) fewer dollars to spend on IT.   
Existing infrastructure will be recycled and renewed.  "Doing more with 
less" will be the new order of the day.   Companies such as Dell and HP 
are going to have an even more difficult time not only operating on U.S. 
soil, but their margins will continue to become thinner.  
(Co-incidentally Dell just opened its *third* India-base call center and 
is looking for land on which to build a factory.)  Companies that mainly 
target the home market, such as Gateway, will likely go out of business.

Add to all that the simple fact that Senator Akaka was born in 1924, and 
has been in the Senate since 1990, while Senator Inouye, who was also 
born in 1924, has been in the Senate since 1963.   Both men will be 82 
years old in September, 2006.  House Representative Neil Abercrombie 
turns 68 this year as well.  How much longer do you think they'll 
continue to provide the seniority in Congress that profits Hawaii in so 
many ways?  

Ed Case is relatively young at a mere 54 in September, but Represenative 
Case has only been in the House since the end of 2002.  Thats right, all 
that federal money will also start to decrease soon.

I think its not completly bleak.   It will be easier to get along with 
with less electricity here.   Small changes (such as turning off 
parasitic loads (nearly any electronic device you own that is "instant 
on"), and lights when they aren't in-use can have a big impact.   
Converting your water heater to solar can save about 20%.   I predict a 
boom in solar installations in the next 2-3 years.  You can read that as 
a business opportunity if you like.

VoIP will increase, and thats a place where many folks on the list can 
make a living.  Matt isn't the only guy who will profit, as I'm sure 
he'll agree.  If DUNDi succeeds, then you're not going to want (or need) 
a VoIP provider for most of your calls.   That probably scares Matt, but 
there are opportunities exposed by understanding the potential for 
something like DUNDi or GNUP.  (Yes Matt, even if it needs to be 'fixed' 
first.  The nice thing about having a completely open standard and a 
GPLed implementation is that both can be changed by motivated people who 
understand the problems and how to fix them.)

But by and large, "more with less" is where FOSS shines.   Windows (re-) 
licensing will become very expensive, and a lot of applications will 
either be transfered to run on WINE (or similar) or run in a Xen or 
VMware container while being quickly re-written for linux or freebsd on 
re-purposed hardware.   Fewer sysadmins likely translates to more 
linux-based "terminals".   More OpenLDAP, less "Active Directory".  
Lotus Notes and Exchange will both die for something that is far easier 
to manage and costs exactly $0.00 to purchase or license.

Does any of that sound familiar?

So friends, if you like to live here, and you like to eat, you might 
just want to get involved, if only out of self-interest.   We can learn 
together how to do these things sllightly before they become 
increasingly important to the general population.

Or, we can continue this fun little flame war with all the back-channel 
("Bcc:") email (more than four of you at last count), claim credit for 
ideas (falsely or not), position for "leadership", quit the list, quit 
the board, label people "arrogant" or "stupid" (or worse) and in general 
act like a group of monkeys trying to impregnate a football.

Or, I could be wrong about any or all of the above.

jim