[LUAU] Top 10 Best / Worst Cities For Software Developer Pay
Maddog
maddog at heavymetalradio.net
Sun Mar 25 18:03:55 PDT 2007
Hawaii's real estate market actually looks a lot better than other areas.
Since real estate is a regional business and not a national business I would
tend to think you might see a small dip rather than "the sky is falling" .
In comparison to the national averages, Hawaii's subprime loans are far
below what they are on the mainland.
I don't see a market crash. I see the possibility of a small downward trend
as the condo market must absorb what was recently built but single family
homes are averaging 62 days on the market which is also far below the
national average and our housing inventory is at 6.2 months compared to the
national average of above 8 months.
Not only that but new townhomes and tract projectrs are conducting lotteries
to enable folks to buy homes. With 30 homes to be built more than 300 people
are showing up at these sales. Demand is still pretty strong here.
So to answer your question about prices here stabilizing and rising, no I
don't think 2020 is a good prediction. There were a lot of factors that
contributed to the stagnation here amoung them the crash of the Japanese
economy. With that a lot of money was pulled out of Hawaii and the sound of
air escaping Hawaii's economy could be heard for years. The economy here has
been fairly strong and looks to slowing some now but not stopping nor going
backwards. I think real estate will remain strong here.
Like I said in my last post, solve the VC problem and a software industry
might have a better chance of surviving.
MD
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Thompson" <jim at netgate.com>
To: "LUAU" <luau at lists.hosef.org>
Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2007 2:32 PM
Subject: Re: [LUAU] Top 10 Best / Worst Cities For Software Developer Pay
>
> On Mar 24, 2007, at 6:12 AM, Maddog wrote:
>
>> All that is good but by many standards those with money from the single
>> family market won't become VC investors.
> I didn't (mean to) imply that they would.
>
>> By real estate I meant more along the lines of hotel, condo and
>> timeshare developers and investors. Even that market is in decline and
>> we will see the same problems that happened here in the late 80's and
>> through the 90's when the place was over built and the market had to
>> absorb the excess. That took 12 years.
>
> So you're predicting 2020 before we're back to last year's prices?
>
>> Real estate overall is a safe bet. Over time the investment gains in
>> value.
>
> Yes, but this isn't the question. The question is relative performance
> .vs other investments, and the relative risk profiles of each.
>
> Does home ownership beat the Dow? The NASDAQ? Are you better served by
> having a smaller house, and putting the balance of what you would have
> spent in house payments in the market?
>
>> VC investing is much riskier.
> Yes, and the potential rewards are higher.
>
>> I think tax breaks and a concentration on turning out quality software
>> engineers will go a lot farther to help build an industry.
>
> This is so 'Hawaii'. 'The state will fix it.'
>
> Have we checked that the CS programs at UH and elsewhere are 'full'?
> While we're at it, which CS 'world view' do we want taught to the
> students:
> The conservative view: Computer programs have become too large and
> complex to encompass in a human mind. Therefore, the job of computer
> science education is to teach people how to discipline their work in such
> a way that 500 mediocre programmers can join together and produce a
> program that correctly meets its specification.
>
> The radical view: Computer programs have become too large and complex to
> encompass in a human mind. Therefore, the job of computer science
> education is to teach people how to expand their minds so that the
> programs can fit, by learning to think in a vocabulary of larger, more
> powerful, more flexible ideas than the obvious ones. Each unit of
> programming thought must have a big payoff in the capabilities of the
> program.
>
> Of course nobody would admit to endorsing the first approach as I've
> described it, yet many introductory programming courses seem to spend
> half their time on obscure rules of the programming language (semicolons
> go between the instructions in Pascal, but after each instruction in C)
> and the other half on stylistic commandments (thou shalt comment each
> procedure with its preconditions and postconditions; thou shalt not use
> goto).
>
> In an article that was not intended as a caricature, Edsger Dijkstra
> argued that beginning computer science students should not be allowed to
> use computers, lest they learn to debug their programs interactively
> instead of writing programs that can be proven correct by formal methods
> before testing. [``On the Cruelty of Really Teaching Computer Science,''
> Communications of the ACM, vol. 32, no. 12, December, 1989.]
>
> The radical view is symbolic processing, but thats not taught in CS
> courses any longer (at least its not a core requirement at UH, or HCC, as
> far as I can tell.)
>
>> It has been proven time and again to work. In the short run there are
>> setbacks but in the longrun it is very profitable. Look at San Diego,
>> Raleigh, NC, and the Boston/Jersey areas. All the technology companies
>> there were attracted by tax breaks and the universities concentrating on
>> turning out IP and a workforce.
>
> All these areas have strong VC markets as well.
>
>> The VC problem is a large part of the puzzle though and I don't what the
>> hell can be done about that. The Hawaii Venture Capital Association has
>> tried to get the state to create a fund but I think the only way to get
>> VC's here for the second round or to convince some of the RE investors
>> to part with their cash, is to have matching government funds (for now).
>> How about you Jim, any ideas? Maybe something can be hatched on this
>> list and passed on to the governor?
>
> My view is that success breeds interest. A few small, successful,
> Hawaii-based startups will attract the right kinds of attention and
> capital needed to fund others.
>
> I do agree with you that discourse (on-list or elsewhere) is a necessary
> first step.
>
> jim
>
>>
>> MD
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jim Thompson" <jim at netgate.com>
>> To: "LUAU" <luau at lists.hosef.org>
>> Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2007 12:47 AM
>> Subject: Re: [LUAU] Top 10 Best / Worst Cities For Software Developer
>> Pay
>>
>>
>>>
>>> On Mar 23, 2007, at 5:56 PM, Maddog wrote:
>>>
>>>> Jim,
>>>>
>>>> I think it's a perpetual chicken and egg thing. More companies would
>>>> consider moving here if the talent pool existed and more software
>>>> engineers would stimulate more growth of software companies.
>>>>
>>>> There are rich people here but it needs to be rich people that are
>>>> interested in investing in tech companies. Most of our riches are
>>>> invested in Real Estate. There is not very much venture capital here.
>>>
>>> Thats because for the past several years, (starting in 2001, after the
>>> dot-com crash), Real Estate has been a fairly good investment.
>>>
>>> Here are the last ten years of stats for Oahu, based on the state
>>> report, single-family homes only (no condos, though the condo picture
>>> is worse!)
>>>
>>> Year Units median % change %change
>>> Sold price Unit Sales price
>>> Year/Year yr/yr
>>> 1997 2,025 $310,000
>>> 1998 2,495 $295,000 23.3% - 4.8%
>>> 1999 2,855 $291,000 14.4% -1.1%
>>> 2000 3,181 $295,000 11.4% 1.1%
>>> 2001 3.406 $299,900 7.1% 1.7%
>>> 2002 3,906 $335,000 14.7% 11.7%
>>> 2003 4,419 $380,000 13.1% 13.4%
>>> 2004 4,702 $460,000 6.4% 21.1%
>>> 2005 4,617 $590,000 -1.8% 28.3%
>>> 2006 4,041 $630,000 -12.5% 6.8%
>>>
>>> but look at what happened last year. Home sales were down (a lot)
>>> and prices mostly flattened. Look around, the "for sale" signs are
>>> back out, at least
>>> over here on Windward Oahu. If you graph median price .vs sales,
>>> you'll see that we've 'nosed over'
>>>
>>> Now, for those people who "get out" at or near the peak, what do they
>>> do with their money?
>>>
>>> Bigger house? Some will, but who really wants a bigger, more
>>> expensive house in a market that is flattening?
>>> Eject to mainland? Some will, but it sucks there.
>>>
>>> Essentially there will soon be a largish pool of cash that needs
>>> investing. Yes, folks will need someplace 'new' to live, and they'll
>>> spend some on that, but
>>> the 'rich' people, the people who can fill out the rule 501 (and 505
>>> or 506) paperwork, are the people who become the "investors" (actually
>>> "limited partners")
>>> in a VC fund. The guys you meet when you go to pitch your idea are
>>> typically the "general partners" or their lackeys.
>>>
>>> (Perhaps you know all this, but I'll bet that some on the list don't.)
>>>
>>> These people are going to find themselves with windfalls off their
>>> real estate (if they're selling it and goodness knows, a lot of them
>>> *are* selling it). The Internet
>>> did not cease when the dot-com bust happened. They all use Google,
>>> and some of them use (or at least know about) several "web 2.0"
>>> companies (Flickr, last.fm,
>>> Odeo, Delicious, Digg, reddit, twitter, ... skype, etc.)
>>>
>>> I predict a flight to quality.
>>>
>>> That said, there is only "so much" VC (and Angel capital) here.
>>> Typically the firms in Hawaii aren't large enough to support a second
>>> (or subsequent) round, other
>>> than in a non-lead role. This is the stage that crushes VC- funded
>>> Hawaiian companies, as they are forced to go to California for a lead,
>>> and the lead doesn't want to
>>> have to travel to Hawaii for board meetings (etc), so they lead with
>>> the proviso that the company relocates back to the mainland.
>>>
>>> The idea then, is to avoid a second round. Get bought, or get in the
>>> black, early.
>>>
>>>
>>>> Holy Crap Batman! Did Jim just agree with me?
>>>
>>> Were you correct?
>>>
>>>> MD
>>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jim Thompson" <jim at netgate.com>
>>>> To: "LUAU" <luau at lists.hosef.org>
>>>> Sent: Friday, March 23, 2007 12:46 PM
>>>> Subject: Re: [LUAU] Top 10 Best / Worst Cities For Software Developer
>>>> Pay
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mar 23, 2007, at 6:09 AM, Maddog wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> I think it's more of a supply and demand proposition. There are not
>>>>>> a lot of software development companies here and worker demand is
>>>>>> low, therefore employers can pay whatever workers will accept and
>>>>>> workers have to accept what is offered or not work.
>>>>>
>>>>> Why would a bright, motivated college grad go to work for someone
>>>>> else?
>>>>>
>>>>> What we need are more startups in Hawaii.
>>>>>
>>>>> http://www.paulgraham.com/siliconvalley.html
>>>>>
>>>>> Quoting: I think you only need two kinds of people to create a
>>>>> technology hub: rich people and nerds. They're the limiting reagents
>>>>> in the reaction that produces startups, because they're the only
>>>>> ones present when startups get started. Everyone else will move.
>>>>>
>>>>> We have a plethora of rich people here. What we need are more
>>>>> "nerds". If Hawaii could get off its ass and educate more people
>>>>> with programming skills, in a generation we would have a lot more
>>>>> startups.
>>>>>
>>>>> So yes MD, I agree, the solution is "more software companies", but
>>>>> I'm not sure that getting existing software companies to "move here"
>>>>> is the right move.
>>>>>
>>>>> Jim
>>>>>
>>>>>> In some sectors there is a high demand, such as network engineers.
>>>>>> There are several network integrators that have had to hire workers
>>>>>> from out of state. Higher demand means better wages and employees
>>>>>> have the upper hand and can demand more money. The employer has to
>>>>>> accept the higher salary demand unless he wants to take his chances
>>>>>> and look outside the state to find someone for less (unlikely).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So if Lingle was to "do something" about the situation, it would be
>>>>>> to encourage more software development companies to move here,
>>>>>> i.e., tax breaks. That would increase demand and competition for
>>>>>> better workers and would increase salaries.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> MD
>>>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>>>> From: "Jim Thompson" <jim at netgate.com>
>>>>>> To: "LUAU" <luau at lists.hosef.org>
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, March 20, 2007 9:39 AM
>>>>>> Subject: Re: [LUAU] Top 10 Best / Worst Cities For Software
>>>>>> Developer Pay
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mar 20, 2007, at 7:42 AM, Eric Hattemer wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Jim Thompson wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Where are the "exports" for Hawaii?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I think this is the key question. You can't pay people with
>>>>>>>> money you don't have. It's not so much about how much are
>>>>>>>> "they" paying as "who is there that can actually pay?" I think
>>>>>>>> the only way to solve this problem would be to get more
>>>>>>>> companies with more cash- earning products to Hawaii. It's not
>>>>>>>> direct, but there's definitely a small correlation between
>>>>>>>> corporate earnings and employee salaries. How many giant
>>>>>>>> (Microsoft, Adobe, IBM, Apple, etc.) software/ computer companies
>>>>>>>> have offices in Hawaii? The only one I can think of is IBM.
>>>>>>>> -Eric Hattemer
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Sun has one. I don't know the current status, but they're still
>>>>>>> in the phone book. It could be an 'e-suite' for a salesperson
>>>>>>> and perhaps an SE. That said, IBM is unlikely to be doing
>>>>>>> development here, either.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The biggest problem with Hawaii is logistics. While its no more
>>>>>>> expensive to FedEx from here than from many locations on the
>>>>>>> mainland, its impossible to ship "overnight" from here. You
>>>>>>> could setup to do most everything over the Internet, but there is
>>>>>>> a huge lack of local infrastructure in terms of co- location, etc.
>>>>>>> Having "lava.net" host my servers just isn't going to cut it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> And then there is the simple fact that we're currently 6 hours out
>>>>>>> of 'sync' with the East Coast, and even California is 3 hours
>>>>>>> away. If you think that doesn't matter, consider the 'window of
>>>>>>> opportunity' to speak with customers, suppliers, fellow
>>>>>>> employees, etc on the East Coast.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> By the time you're sitting at your desk, with the second cup of
>>>>>>> coffee consumed, its 8am (haha!) here, and 2pm on the East Coast.
>>>>>>> They won't want to schedule conf calls past 4pm their time, so
>>>>>>> there is a mere 2 hours of "overlap" per day. Of course, if
>>>>>>> you're willing to stay up past 2am, then you can catch them
>>>>>>> mid-doughnut, explain the issue du jour, and perhaps have a
>>>>>>> solution by their COB.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> There is also the none-too-subtle suspicion on their part that
>>>>>>> you spend every spare moment on the beach, ogling the gender of
>>>>>>> your choice, or surfing, that you have achieved a state of
>>>>>>> "permanent vacation", and they are none-too-happy that your off-
>>>>>>> hours are spent in in a tiki-lit paradise while they return home
>>>>>>> to either sub-urban blandness or urban blight.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> After that, you're faced with a workforce that (in the large)
>>>>>>> isn't technology savvy, (the Microsoft-touting sheeple are as
>>>>>>> thick here as anywhere), and can't even find the motivation to
>>>>>>> return to work reliably. ("Sorry I fo'got to call eh...but chu
>>>>>>> know I always got choke aloha foa ya brah!")
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> All that said, I don't think its impossible to 'do' high- tech
>>>>>>> here, but its very difficult to 'scale' it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Jim
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>>>>> http://lists.hosef.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/luau
>>>>>>
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