[LUAU] Re: Goobuntu Linux

[Jim Thompson]

On Feb 1, 2006, at 3:33 PM, prb at lava.net wrote:

>>> Ask yourself, what's their market for YALD? Geeks? None of us  
>>> would  tolerate such an invasion of privacy.
>
> Jim Thompson wrote:
>
>> Yet all of us use Google now.
>
> This is what I use: http://www.scroogle.org/scraper.html
>
> When I use Google directly, I block their cookie. I use Jump Link  
> on their links (if using Javascript). I do not frequent Orkut. I do  
> not use Gmail, and will not answer e-mail from Gmail.  
> Googlesyndication and Googleanalytics are likewise blocked.
>
> In short, I keep Google at arm's length.

OK, but you still use Google, and very few people erect the  
Googlewall that you have.

>>> N00bs? They try Linux if a Geek helps them.
>> Or Google promises to end the days of malware on their PeeCee.
>
> Again, how is this different from anyone else's promise? When I was  
> cleaning PCs, infections were a problem at the time of infection  
> only, and no-one accepted Linux as a way to end the problem.

They didn't have an org the size of Google (and with the branding of  
Google) pushing it, either.   To my mind, the missing bit in a Google  
desktop is
creating a support structure.

>>> The efforts of Xandros and Linspire are just a drop in the bucket.
>> Ah, but erosion is happening in the markets dominated by  
>> Microsoft.   Erosion is a powerful force.
>
> I see evidence for it in the server market. I see very little on  
> the desktop. I did manage to get my father to switch, though. I  
> told him that the only way he would continue to get free tech  
> support from me is if he converted. What does he do now? He runs  
> all his old software on Win4Lin, but with a couple of key  
> exceptions, browsing and e-mail.

I came >this close< to converting Jamie off XP in December.

>> And 10 years ago, very few (if any) did so. [put Linux on servers]
>
> But it is far easier to justify the switch to Linux servers. First,  
> the majority of the switch is from Unix to Linux. There is  
> surprisingly little movement from Windows to Linux.

I think you are (again) dealing in historical artifact.  Yes, most of  
the early move was Unix -> Linux, but there is ample evidence that  
Linux is now
slowly eroding the growth Windows market share, especially on the  
server.   IDC estimated in late 2004 that linux was growing twice as  
fast as Windows in the "volume server" (< $25k) market.    In late  
2004, IDC estimated that Windows had a 32% market share of the "value  
server" market (measured by revenue), Unix had a 36% share, and linux  
a 9% share.  (I have no idea what "other" might have been.)

But Windows was growing at 15%, Unix at 3% and Linux at 30%.  If we  
extrapolate:

2004		32		9
2005		37		12
2006		42.3	16
2007		48.6	21
2008		55.9	28.1
2009		64.3	37.4
2010		74		49.74

As you can see, if current trends continue, by 2009 there is nothing  
but Windows and Linux in the "value server" market, and by 2010,
something has to give.   Of course, by 2010, Microsoft will have  
shipped Vista.  :-)

Jim