[LUAU] Oracle Unbreakable Linux - 9000 downloads in first 30 days

[Jim Thompson]

On Dec 28, 2006, at 10:01 AM, Julian Yap wrote:

> "Oracle Unbreakable Linux" was downloaded 9,000 times in the
> first 30 days, according to Oracle’s president Chuck Phillips:
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/22626
>
> It could be argued that the first 30 days would mark the peak in
> interest for Oracle's rebranded Linux.

Well, you can only see the peak after the fact.

I do agree that 30x/day seems low, but while it may seem Oracle's  
Unbreakable Linux program is not gaining the traction it should, I  
doubt that Larry expected to convert the masses.  The "unbreakable"  
program is more a signal of a continuous shift for Oracle to cover  
the entire IT stack. Meanwhile, Oracle makes a few bucks on services  
without a significant investment.

Moreover, it's really a defensive move against operating system  
providers. Oracle wants to neutralize Microsoft’s dominance in the OS  
layer, prevent open source competitors like Red Hat from inching up  
the stack, and cover an area that IBM and SAP does not own. So I  
don't think Oracle is spending any sleepless nights worrying about  
the progress of its Linux program and comparing it against Red Hat or  
Novell.

> RHT is now trading higher than it was before the Oracle and
> Novell/MS announcements:
> http://finance.google.com/finance?q=rht
>
> You'd make a nice profit if you bought at $14.83 on October 26th.

yes, but if you bought in early-mid September, you'd still be  
underwater.

RHT got listed on the NYSE Dec 12 and the MSFT / NOVL thing happened  
Nov 2,  both
are good for RHT, as was the news (released 12/22) that, while  
profits for q3 (ended 11/30/06)
were down, they beat expectations.

/* quoting */
For the three months that ended Nov. 30, earnings dropped to $14.6  
million, or 7 cents per share, down from $24.6 million, or 12 cents a  
share in the same period last year.

Excluding stock options expenses and income tax provisions, profit  
totaled $29.6 million, or 14 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had forecast a profit of 12  
cents per share, excluding options expenses.

"This quarter's performance was characterized by strong market demand  
and solid execution," Charlie Peters, Red Hat's executive vice  
president and chief financial officer, said in a statement.

/* end quote */

I doubt we've seen the effect(s) of what Oracle might do to RHAT, but  
the MSFT/NOVL deal is, frankly, bigger news, (at least in terms of  
how the market tends to look at things), and I'm more curious to see  
what happens with Q4's numbers.